U.S. job growth likely remained robust in July amid shifts in seasonal employment at schools caused by the pandemic, which could mask some softening in underlying labor market conditions as the boost from fiscal stimulus and the economy’s reopening fades. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday could show nonfarm payrolls surging by at least 1 million last month because of the so-called seasonal adjustment factors, which are also seen inflating employment at auto assembly plants and in the leisure and hospitality sector. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, education employment normally declined by about 1 million jobs in July as schools closed, while temporary plant shutdowns for summer retooling weighed on automobile payrolls.
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